When you believe that there is zero chance of a disaster you do zero disaster planning
16 June 2010

The following is a "food for thought" risk reflection for the day published by John Schembri, the Managing Director of Shield Security Consultants.

This morning I heard the following quote on SKY News and I thought I should share it and some reflections with you.

In the debate about the man-made environmental disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, a senator [whose name unfortunately escapes me – I was more keen to listen to what he was saying rather than who he is – said the following:

"When you believe that there is zero chance of a disaster you do zero disaster planning"

Food for thought indeed, particularly for risk assessors and risk managers.  Allow me two minutes of your time for reflection, please.

First and foremost, the sheer scale and magnitude of the disaster seems to be escaping us all.  Just because there is no evident explosion or conflagration or destruction or dead people, the effect of what we are viewing is somewhat surrealistic.  Footage of gushing oil at the ocean seabed, afflicted birdlife and dirty coastlines becoming dirtier by the minute do not tell the whole story.

Millions upon millions of gallons of valuable energy resources have been lost forever and will continue to.  An entire way of life in a sub-regional sector of an entire continent has been affected, possibly forever.  The total cost of the risk – in terms of the sum of all the consequences, will run into unprecedented numbers, and this during a depressed epoch …. … such is the true nature of risk.

Second point is that such events lie within the most difficult part of the risk forecast spectrum – I will explain.  Any risk characterized by extremely low likelihood of occurrence and extremely high consequences is the most dangerous and difficult to evaluate.  But such is also the nature of terrorism, terminal cancer, financial collapse, extreme engineering, space travel and so on. 

Getting back to the quote above, the essential point is that zero planning logically leads to zero preparation, which means inadequate prevention, which in turn leads to unacceptable exposures!!!  When dealing with risk, prudence and common sense must prevail and we all have a responsibility towards society, the businesses we run and  those businesses we interact with as well as towards the environment to act safely at all times.  Please do not misunderstand me – acting safe does not have to mean not engaging in an activity. 

Acting safe means that we do things properly, taking safety and well-being into account and balancing costs versus benefits.  In other words acting within our consciences, moral codes or whatever sense of decency each of us values as a rational human being.

So, today, let’s start making a difference.  Whatever the nature of your business, stop for five (5) minutes and reflect on the top three (3) risks facing your organization.  And ask yourself the following:

1.       How exposed am I and my business by this risk?
2.       What can I do about it and what am I doing?
3.       Whom should I involve to share the risk and go about managing it effectively?

Thank you for your time.  I hope we have helped you make at least a very tiny difference in reducing risk to your business.  It is our privilege to serve you in this field.

For further details, please contact:
Shield Security Consultants Ltd
Momosa Street,
Guardamangia PTA1042
Tel: 2144 6980
Fax: 2149 7045
Mob: 9942 4811
Email: consult@shield.com.mt